TrueBeats Earnings Surprise Prediction

The TrueBeats signal predicts EPS surprises and misses ahead of company disclosure, by incorporating multiple sources of information.

Get a 30-day trial to TrueBeats EPS Prediction Dashboard

TrueBeats outperforms consensus estimates by incorporating other significant sources of information about a company’s likelihood to beat or miss its consensus EPS & Revenue forecasts, including detailed broker estimates data, metrics of earnings management, and time-series trends.

Our forecasts are consistently more accurate than consensus or simpler models – correctly predicting surprises up to 80% of the time globally.

TrueBeats is made up of 3 components

  • ExpertBeat: 

    The quality and timeliness of the forecasts made by sell side analysts

  • TrendBeat: 

    Historical earnings and sales surprises for the company in question as well as its peers

  • ManagementBeat: 

    Variables which forecast surprise based on management guidance, estimate variance, announcement timing, and company characteristics

Trusted by leading investment firms

Main Truebeats Dashboard with daily updates on predicted EPS for upcoming announcements
Main Truebeats Dashboard with daily updates on predicted EPS for upcoming announcements
Detail view

Company detail view with upcoming EPS prediction, historical hit rate and historical surprises and predictions

TrueBeats Examples

See TrueBeats in action with predicted surprises vs actuals. In all of these cases the companies had a 'pop' in earnings after a beat.

Data Dog
Data Dog (DDOG)
Shopify
Shopify (SHOP)
upwk
Upwork (UPWK)

How to Leverage TrueBeats in the Investment Process

Research Dashboard

Find new ideas or monitor companies in your universe with the TrueBeats Signal

Data Export

Export detailed predictions and data to leverage in your existing workflow

Portfolio Management

  • Idea generation and filtering
  • Last look before actioning trade ideas
  • Earning projections
  • Creating a score for management
  • Risk management

Frequently asked questions

How much does TrueBeats cost?

Pricing is available for qualified buyers. Please book a call to learn more.

Who Uses ExtractAlpha?

ExtractAlpha datasets and signals are used by hedge funds and asset management firms managing more than $1.5 trillion in assets in the U.S., EMEA, and the Asia Pacific. We work with quants, data specialists, and asset managers across the financial services industry.